Money Matters - March 2008
March 10th, 2008So where do we go from here? The irresponsible exuberance of the market has caught up with us and reversed course dramatically catching many by surprise. Lenders have pulled in the reins and even solid properly underwritten residential and commercial loan transactions are having difficulty being funded. It was just a matter of time until the bubble burst as indicated in my column dated Oct 2006 entitled “cooling markets and lower rates.”
Recent employment figures indicate that there are some major cracks starting to appear in the economy. Unemployment is reaching levels not seen in five years and deteriorating, oil is trading above $100 and gold has almost hit $1000 per oz. The sole bright spot appears to be the weak dollar which is creating manufacturing jobs and improving exports as U.S. goods become less expensive globally. Residential home foreclosures are at all time nationwide highs, commercial mortgages have held steady relative to residential loans but many large commercial transactions have been shelved due to lack of financing available in the market and its just a matter of time until we see cracks widen in the commercial markets as well.
So what do we do and how do we get out of this mess? First and foremost, we ignore the media as most of what’s out there is uneducated, lacks discipline and is primarily focused on increasing ratings through fear. A perfect example is the percentage of media that still think that residential mortgage rates are tied to the 10 year treasury. Next, a proper and complete assessment of our financial position must be made to determine ways to reduce exposure to the market and a further slow down in economic conditions. A trusted advisor can assess your information and give you guidance on ways to create “holding power.” The best approach to this type of market is to take a defensive position. Solidify your positions, reduce risk and sit on the side lines for the most part to insure and protect your existing assets.
With that said, economic downturns are tremendous buying opportunities. There are opportunities to pick up distressed assets at severely discounted prices but you must be careful not to risk your entire portfolio by taking unnecessary risks or risks that you can’t handle if the market turndown lasts longer than expected or deepens. Assets should only be acquired that fit your long term investment objectives and can be held in portfolio on a prolonged basis if necessary.
Fannie Mae has recently rolled out guidelines for increased loan amounts that are based on 125% of the median home price not to exceed $729,750.00. For duplexes the limits are $934,200, tir-plex $1,129,250 and four-plex is $1,403,400. These higher limits will be a great tool to reduce mortgage risk associated to loans that are not properly structured and/or not in line with your investment objectives. Additionally, I have located several lenders that are providing excellent commercial and residential loans and rates based on common sense underwriting.
Feel free to call in for a complete review and analysis of your specific situation and lets determine what options are available to reduce your risk in these economic times.




